‘War of Terror’?

What lay behind the hysteria, of course, was the prospect that for the very first time one of the people who tricked America into war, then endangered national security yet again in the effort to cover their tracks, might pay some price. But Ajami need not have worried.

Back when the investigation into the leak of Valerie Plame Wilson’s identity began, Bush insisted that if anyone in his administration had violated the law, “that person will be taken care of.” Now we know what he meant. Bush has not challenged the verdict in the Libby case, and other people convicted of similar offenses have spent substantial periods of time in prison. But Libby goes free. Oh, and don’t fret about the fact that Libby still had to pay a fine. Does anyone doubt that his friends will find a way to pick up the tab?

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Source: IIPM Editorial, 2006

An IIPM and Management Guru Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri's Initiative

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The sub prime lending fiasco will take banks and brokerage houses with it...

A few points: Although the US stock market became oversold at the end of June in the very short-term, the market is certainly not oversold from an intermediate point of view and is still grossly over-bought from a longer term perspective. An oversold condition would be reached if only 45% of stocks would trade above the 200 Day Moving Average (MA). A truly oversold condition would be reached if only 10% to 20% of shares would trade above the 200 Day MA.

Th e CDO market problems are likely to worsen for quite some time. First of all we are moving into the peak season for Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) resets, the use of which Mr. Greenspan actually recommended in 2003 and 2004 right at the bottom of the interest rate cycle.

Since a large number of ARMs will be reset over the next 18 months at a time when the housing market continues to deteriorate, defaults are likely to increase much further! After Mr. Greenspan applauded the sub-prime lending industry for allowing also poor US households to purchase a home in 2003 and 2004, last week regulators told mortgage lenders to toughen standards for sub-prime home loans, sub-prime lenders’ stocks have been southwards.

Fed Governor Randall Krozner said in an email statement at the end of June that regulators expect “lenders to make sure sub-prime borrowers not only can afford their monthly payments while the introductory rate is in effect, but also after the interest rate resets… It is the right thing to do for the borrowers’ sake.’’

My regular readers will know by now that I do not have a high regard for the Fed (or for that matter most central bankers) but when I see this happening I really have to shake my head in disbelief. How could the Fed encourage reckless lending and borrowing with its artificially low interest rates policy and with its statements for years?

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Source: IIPM Editorial, 2006

An IIPM and Management Guru Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri's Initiative

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Zoom and Times Now

The year 2007 also saw the coming together of two rivals - HT and TOI to launch a morning tabloid - Metro Now in the national capital priced at Re.1. Says Rahul Kansal, Brand Director, Times of India, “While we were in the process of starting our tabloid, we came to know that HT also has similar plans. And had two new products competed in this nascent category, they would have driven each other into non-profitability.” While officials at HT and TOI may opine otherwise, it is largely believed that the move came across to fight the plans of Aroon Purie’s newspaper dreams which have begun to fructify now. The owner of India Today group and the TV Today Network recently forged a deal with the publishers of The Daily Mail, Associated Newspapers (ANL) to launch morning newspapers in India. The hiring process for the newspaper is at full blast and the new entity is expected to hit the stands very soon.

Meanwhile, DNA (in which Subhash Chandra’s Zee holds a 7% stake), only second to TOI in Mumbai is also planning to hit the capital sometime soon, challenging the stranglehold of TOI and HT. Th e print media sector which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% to the size of Rs.232 billion by 2011 is the favourite segment for global investors with maximum foreign investment. However, despite the double digit growth fi gure projected for the sector, there are many who are keeping away from it. Sony Entertainment Television (SET India) is one of them. While talking about the growth areas of SET, CEO Kunal Dasgupta told B&E, “We are not going to go be in radio and not defi nitely in print.” Kunal is of the opinion that these two mediums don’ have subscription revenues which is the key to the future. “Instead, we will go online, on demand and on the move (mobile),” he adds.

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Source: IIPM Editorial, 2006

An IIPM and Management Guru Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri's Initiative

Guantánomo Bay will continue to haunt Bush

Defending the MCA in 2006, Bush had claimed that the US “would provide terrorists the justice and due process that they denied their victims.” Refuting the flawed logic of MCA, Robert A. Levy, senior fellow at the Cato Institute candidly stated to B & E, “The danger in following the present legal regime (of MCA) lies in similar or worse regimes of nations which may apprehend or detain US citizens and mistreat them, and how would we deal with that situation.”

The MCA is an absolutely unnecessary legislation, as there is an existing law, namely USA Patriot Act of 2001, which is more than adequate in its present form to deal with terrorism. The Senate Judiciary Committee is marking up a bill to restore the habeas corpus in July.

“The distinguished constitutional scholar Sanford Levinson wrote that the eminence grise of the Bush administration is Carl Schmitt, the legal philosopher of the Nazis. Harsh words, but the government is intent on proving them to be accurate,” said Chomsky. One only hopes that the US public would never let their country become a totalitarian state, à la Nazi Germany.

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Source: IIPM Editorial, 2006

An IIPM and Management Guru Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri's Initiative

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